توسعۀ یک مدل تصمیم‌گیری مبتنی بر محاسبات نرم جهت پیش‌بینی شدت تصادفات در راه‌هاي برون‌شهری

ميثم عفتي

چکیده


توسعۀ روش‌های جدید و هوشمند برای جلوگیری از وقوع تصادف یا کاهش شدت تصادفات در راه‌های برون‌شهری یکی از اهداف اصلی مطالعات ایمنی راه است. هدف اين تحقيق تلفيق قابليت‌هاي سيستم‌هاي اطلاعات مکاني (GIS) با روش‌هاي مبتنی بر محاسبات نرم، جهت برآورد شدت تصادفات و تعیین فاکتورهای مؤثر بر آن در راه‌های دو‌خطۀ برون‌شهری است. روش پيشنهادي با ارائۀ مدل درخت دسته‌بندی و رگرسیون فازی (FCART) و ايجاد پايگاه دادۀ مکانمند متشکل از داده‌هاي تصادفات و اطلاعات راه و محيط مجاور آن در محور قزوين- رشت (ايران) بررسی می‌شود. نتایج با استفاده روش اعتبارسنجی ده‌قسمتی بر رویدادهایی که شدت تصادفات آنها معلوم است، ارزيابي و با مدل درخت دسته‌بندی و رگرسیون (CART) مقایسه می‌شود. نتايج نشان مي‌دهد که مدل درخت دسته‌بندی و رگرسیون فازی در مقایسه با درخت تصمیم CART فرایند استنتاج قوی‌تر‌ی دارد و شدت تصادفات را با صحت بیشتری پیش‌بینی می‌کند. تحلیل حساسیت روش پیشنهادی ضمن کشف تأثيرات مکاني طرح هندسي و عوارض و کاربري‌هاي مجاور راه بر شدت تصادفات، نقص فنی خودرو، کمربند ایمنی و شرایط آب‌وهوایی را نیز مهم‌ترین فاکتورهای تأثیر‌گذار در شدت تصادف می‌شمارد. این مطالعه به متخصصان ایمنی راه کمک ‌می‌کند تا عوامل مکانی تأثیرگذار در سطوح متفاوت شدت تصادفات را شناسایی کنند و اقدامات پیشگیرانۀ لازم را برای کاهش شدت یا جلوگیری از وقوع تصادفات انجام دهند.

واژگان کلیدی


تحلیل‌های مکاني، محاسبات نرم، شدت تصادف، راه دوخطۀ برون‌شهری

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