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یک مدل ترکیبی رگرسیون کاربری اراضی فازی برای ارزیابی کمی آثار سلامت محیطی ناشی از سناریوهای ترافیکی، نمونة مطالعاتی: شهر اصفهان
بهنام تشیع, عباس علیمحمدی

چکیده
در این مقاله، روش جدیدی برای مدل‌سازی کمی آثار سلامت محیط ناشی از سناریوهای ترافیکی پیشنهاد شده است. برای این منظور، دو مدل مبتنی بر سیستم‌های استنتاج فازی سلسله‌مراتبی عرضه شده است. در توسعة مدل مورد استفاده برای ارزیابی تأثیر سیستم حمل و نقل در غلظت ذرات معلق، از داده‌های مربوط به یک مدل پراکنش استفاده شده است. مدل رگرسیون کاربری اراضی فازی1 حاصل افزون بر مزایایی همچون امکان مدل‌سازی تغییرات غلظت آلاینده با رزولوشن بالا، حجم پردازش مناسب و لحاظ‌کردن برهمکنش میان انتشار و فرایندهای آب‌وهوایی، امکان استفاده از داده‌های توصیفی و غیرقطعی را نیز دارد. برای توسعة مدل مورد استفاده در ارزیابی تأثیر غلظت ذرات معلق ناشی از ترافیک در سلامت، از یک متریک‌ حاصل از مطالعات اپیدمیولوژیک استفاده شده است. مدل پیشنهادی قابلیت‌های متریک مذکور را، با ایجاد امکان مدل‌سازی عدم قطعیت ارتباط میان پارامترها و عدم قطعیت مقادیر پارامترها، بهبود داده است. برای افزایش کارآیی هر دو مدل، از ساختار سلسله‌مراتبی مبتنی‌بر مسئله و تولید و تنظیم هم‌زمان توابع عضویت و مجموعة قواعد ازطریق یادگیری استفاده شده است. برای بررسی کارآیی روش پیشنهادی، تأثیر سه سناریوی ترافیکی در سلامت محیطی در شهر اصفهان ارزیابی شده است. از میان سناریوهای یادشده، طرح مناطق کم‌انتشار و طرح زوج و فرد، به‌ترتیب، بیشترین و کمترین مزایای مرتبط با سلامت محیطی را دارند. نتایج حاصل نشان می‌دهد روش پیشنهادی برای ارزیابی سلامت محیطی، در مقایسه با روش‌های مشابه، دقت و کارآیی مطلوبی دارد.
واژگان کلیدی
ارزیابی آثار، سیستم‌های استنتاج فازی سلسله‌مراتبی، برنامه‌ریزی حمل‌ونقل، ذرات معلق، سلامت محیطی

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