نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی پسادکتری، گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، کرج، ایران
2 استاد گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، کرج، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Land use changes as one of the most serious human threats have led to the destruction of biodiversity and the reduction of ecosystem services in the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests. In this study, the spatial-temporal land use changes in this area were investigated using the Landsat satellite images (1989-2023) in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) web system. In addition, to model and predict these changes, the hybrid model of artificial neural network and cellular automata (CA-ANN), based on the descriptive variables of height, slope, population density, distance from settlements, distance from the city center and distance from the roads were examined and a map of the possible trend of land use changes for 2060 was also prepared. Finally, using the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, the impact of these variables was analyzed on the land use changes in the area. According to the results, the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests demonstrate a decreasing trend in 2023 compared to 1989. The results of the prediction of land use changes also revealed that tidal areas and bare lands will increase in 2060, while mangrove forests and water areas will decrease. Also, the results of the regression model analysis showed that the main descriptive variables affecting land use changes include the distance from settlements and roads due to greater accessibility and the possibility of high development of human activities in these natural habitats. Likewise, controlling the declining trend of Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests in the future years requires proper planning and integrated management in the correct utilization of these valuable biological reserves.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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