یک مدل ترکیبی رگرسیون کاربری اراضی فازی برای ارزیابی کمی آثار سلامت محیطی ناشی از سناریوهای ترافیکی، نمونة مطالعاتی: شهر اصفهان

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه نقشه‌برداری، دانشکدة عمران و حمل‌ونقل، دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دانشیار گروه سیستم‌های اطلاعات مکانی، دانشکدة نقشه‌برداری، دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی

چکیده

در این مقاله، روش جدیدی برای مدل‌سازی کمی آثار سلامت محیط ناشی از سناریوهای ترافیکی پیشنهاد شده است. برای این منظور، دو مدل مبتنی بر سیستم‌های استنتاج فازی سلسله‌مراتبی عرضه شده است. در توسعة مدل مورد استفاده برای ارزیابی تأثیر سیستم حمل و نقل در غلظت ذرات معلق، از داده‌های مربوط به یک مدل پراکنش استفاده شده است. مدل رگرسیون کاربری اراضی فازی1 حاصل افزون بر مزایایی همچون امکان مدل‌سازی تغییرات غلظت آلاینده با رزولوشن بالا، حجم پردازش مناسب و لحاظ‌کردن برهمکنش میان انتشار و فرایندهای آب‌وهوایی، امکان استفاده از داده‌های توصیفی و غیرقطعی را نیز دارد. برای توسعة مدل مورد استفاده در ارزیابی تأثیر غلظت ذرات معلق ناشی از ترافیک در سلامت، از یک متریک‌ حاصل از مطالعات اپیدمیولوژیک استفاده شده است. مدل پیشنهادی قابلیت‌های متریک مذکور را، با ایجاد امکان مدل‌سازی عدم قطعیت ارتباط میان پارامترها و عدم قطعیت مقادیر پارامترها، بهبود داده است. برای افزایش کارآیی هر دو مدل، از ساختار سلسله‌مراتبی مبتنی‌بر مسئله و تولید و تنظیم هم‌زمان توابع عضویت و مجموعة قواعد ازطریق یادگیری استفاده شده است. برای بررسی کارآیی روش پیشنهادی، تأثیر سه سناریوی ترافیکی در سلامت محیطی در شهر اصفهان ارزیابی شده است. از میان سناریوهای یادشده، طرح مناطق کم‌انتشار و طرح زوج و فرد، به‌ترتیب، بیشترین و کمترین مزایای مرتبط با سلامت محیطی را دارند. نتایج حاصل نشان می‌دهد روش پیشنهادی برای ارزیابی سلامت محیطی، در مقایسه با روش‌های مشابه، دقت و کارآیی مطلوبی دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Hybrid Dispersion\ Fuzzy Landuse Regression Model for Quantitative Environmental Health Impact Assessment of Urban Transportation Planning in Isfahan, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • B Tashayo 1
  • A Alimohammadi 2
1 Dep. of Surveying Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Transportation, University of Isfahan
2 Center of Excellence in Geospatial Information Technology, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K.N. Toosi University of Technology
چکیده [English]

This article develops and demonstrates a new quantitative modeling approach for environmental health impact assessment of traffic scenarios. For this purpose, two models based on hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS) are developed. In order to develop HFIS for modeling the effect of transportation system on the PM2.5 concentrations, the data from an air dispersion model are utilized. There are several advantages to this approach such as modeling the spatial variation of PM2.5 with high resolution, suitable processing requirements, and consideration of interaction between emissions and meteorological processes. Moreover, the resulting fuzzy landuse regression (LUR) is capable of using accessible qualitative and uncertain data. In order to develop HFIS for modeling the impact of traffic-related PM2.5 on health, a metric derived from epidemiological studies is employed. The suggested model improved the metric capabilities by modeling the uncertainty of relationships among parameters and parameter value. Two solutions are used to improve the performance of both models. First, the topologies of HFISs are selected according to the problem. Second, used variables, membership functions and rule set is determined together through learning. We examine the capabilities of the proposed approach with assessing the impacts of three traffic scenarios to deal with air pollution in Isfahan, Iran and compare the accuracy of the results with representative models from existing literature. The models are first developed based on the current traffic conditions. Then; Low Emission-Zone and Odd/Even scenarios are examined. The examination shows that, they are the most and least effective scenarios in reducing air pollution and improving environmental health, respectively. The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed approach has desirable accuracy; beside that the model can provide better understanding of phenomena and investigating the impact of each of parameters for the planners. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Impact Assessment
  • Hierarchical Fuzzy Inference System
  • Transportation Planning
  • PM2.5
  • Environmental Health

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نشریه سنجش از دور و GIS ایران
دوره 9، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 3
اردیبهشت 1396
صفحه 91-110

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