ارزیابی امنیت اکولوژیکی شهرستان نظرآباد براساس روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی با استفاده از سنجه‏ های سیمای سرزمین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی محیط‌زیست، پژوهشکدة علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران

2 استادیار پژوهشکدة علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران

چکیده

توسعه با مفهوم عام آن، پیشرفت صنعتی، تکنولوژیکی و فضایی، به‌ویژه در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه، به تأثیرات نامطلوب در محیط‌زیست هم در مقیاس ناحیه‌ای و هم در سطوح گوناگون منطقه‎ای، ملی و گاه جهانی منجر شده و به همان میزان، امنیت اکولوژی مناطق را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. طی دهه‌های اخیر، توجه بیشتری به امنیت زیست‌محیطی در جهان شده و روش‌های گوناگونی برای ارزیابی آن توسعه یافته است اما تا به امروز، بیشتر تحقیقات درمورد امنیت اکولوژیکی براساس مدل فشارـ وضعیت‌ـ پاسخ انجام شده است و کمتر مطالعاتی، برمبنای رویکرد مدل اکولوژی سیمای سرزمین، به این مقوله پرداخته‎اند. همچنین تحقیقات اندکی با تمرکز بر تغییرات پویای امنیت اکولوژیکی، به‌ویژه شبیه‌سازی و پیش‌بینی روند توسعة آیندة امنیت محیط‎زیست انجام شده است. هدف از این تحقیق پایش و پیش‌بینی وضعیت امنیت محیط‌زیست در دورة زمانی سال‌های 1991 تا 2035، با تلفیق الگوریتم ماشین‎بردار پشتیبانی، مدل اکولوژی سیمای سرزمین، مدل ترکیبی زنجیرة مارکوف و سلول‌های خودکار (CA-Markov) برای حوزة شهرستان نظرآباد از توابع استان البرز است. بدین‌منظور با طبقه‌بندی تصاویر ماهواره‎ای لندست در دو بازة زمانی پانزده‌ساله طی سال‌های 1991 تا 2021، روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی منطقه در پنج کلاس کاربری، اراضی ساخته‌شده، اراضی کشت‌شده، زمین‌های مرطوب، پوشش گیاهی و اراضی بایر بررسی شد و برای تهیة نقشه‌های کاربری سال 2035، از مدل CA-Markov استفاده شد. به‌منظور کمّی‌کردن ‎الگوهای ‎سیمای ‎سرزمین ‎در سطح کلاس، متریک‌های MPS، CA، NP، PLAND، AWMSI، PD و در سطح سیمای‎ سرزمین، متریک‎های LPI،CONTAG  و SHDI محاسبه شدند. پس از آن، شاخص امنیت اکولوژیک برای متریک‌های سیمای سرزمین منطقة مورد مطالعه، مدل‎سازی شد. نتایج حاکی از کاهش یکپارچگی و افزایش تعداد لکه‎ها در کلاس اراضی کشت‌شده و توسعه و گسترش اراضی انسان‌ساخت در این اراضی بود و از دیگرسو، شاهد بروز پدیدة یکپارچگی در اراضی بایر منطقه بودیم؛ ازاین‌رو امنیت اکولوژیکی منطقه در دورة مورد بررسی، متأثر از وقایع یادشده، طی سال‎های 1991 تا 2006 با شدت بیشتر و در سال‎های 2006 تا پیش‎بینی 2035، با شیب ملایم‏تری رو به کاهش ارزیابی شد. در پایان، رعایت بیش از پیش ملاحظات محیط‎زیستی و اصول حفاظت و حمایت در برنامه‎های توسعه‎ای منطقه پیشنهاد شد.
برای این منظور با استفاده از طبقه‌بندی تصاویر ماهواره ای لندست در دو بازه زمانی پانزده ساله بین سال‌های 1991 و 2006 و 2021، روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی منطقه مورد مطالعه در پنج کلاس کاربری؛ اراضی ساخته شده ، اراضی کشت شده ، زمین های مرطوب ، پوشش گیاهی و اراضی بایر مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و جهت کمی کردن الگوهای سیمای سرزمین در سطح کلاس متریک‌های MPS،CA،NP،PLAND،AWMSIT،PD و در سطح سیمای سرزمین متریک‌های LPI،CONTAG و SHDI محاسبه شدند. برای تهیه نقشه‌های کاربری سال 2035 از مدل CA-Markov استفاده گردید و سپس شاخص امنیت اکولوژیک برای متریک‌های سیمای سرزمین منطقه مورد مطالعه مدل سازی شد. نتایج حاکی از کاهش یکپارچگی و افزایش تعداد لکه ها در کلاس اراضی کشت شده و توسعه و گسترش اراضی انسان ساخت در این اراضی بوده و از طرف دیگر شاهد بروز پدیده یکپارچگی در اراضی بایر منطقه بوده ایم. از این رو امنیت اکولوژیکی منطقه، طی دوره مورد بررسی، متاثر از وقایع فوق، طی سال های 1991 تا 2006 با شدت بیشتر و در سال های 2006 تا پیش‎بینی 2035 با شیب ملایم تری رو به کاهش ارزیابی شد. از این رو رعایت بیش از پیش ملاحظات محیط زیستی و اصول حفاظت و حمایت در برنامه‎های توسعه ای منطقه، ضروری به نظر می‌رسد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of Nazarabad County Ecological Security Based on the Trend of Land Use Changes Using Landscape Metrics

نویسندگان [English]

  • Monireh Amini 1
  • Romina Sayahnia 2
1 Ph.D. Student of Environmental Science and Engineering, Environmental Science Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University
2 Assistant Prof., of Dep. of Environmental Planning and Design, Environmental Science Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

Development in its general sense, industrial, technological and spatial progress, especially in developing countries, has led to adverse effects on the environment not only on a regional scale but also at different regional, national and sometimes global levels which has similarly affected the ecological security of the regions. In recent decades, more attention has been paid to the issue of environmental safety in the world, and various methods have been developed to evaluate it, but to date, most research on ecological safety has been done based on the pressure- Status -response model and fewer studies have been conducted based on approach landscape ecology models have dealt with this category. There is also little research focusing on dynamic changes in ecological security, in particular simulating and predicting the future development of environmental security. The purpose of this study is to monitor and predict the environmental security situation in the period 1991 to 2035 by combining the support vector machine algorithm, landform ecology model, Markov chain combination model, and automated cells for the Nazarabad county area of ​​the functions Alborz province. For this purpose, using the classification of Landsat satellite images in two 15-year time periods from 1991 to 2021, the trend of land use changes in the region in five land use classes; Construction lands, cultivated lands, wetlands, vegetation and barren lands were studied and CA-Markov model was used to prepare land use maps for 2035. MPS, CA, NP, PLAND, AWMSI, and PD metrics were calculated to quantify the landscape appearance patterns at the class level and LPI, CONTAG, and SHDI metrics were calculated at the landscape level. Then, the ecological safety index was modeled for the landscape metrics of the study area. The results indicate a decrease in integration and an increase in the number of spots in the cultivated land class and the development and expansion of man-made lands in these lands. On the other hand, we have witnessed the phenomenon of integration in the barren lands of the region. Therefore, the ecological security of the region during the study period affected by the above events was evaluated more intensively during the years 1991 to 2006  and more gently in the years 2006 to the forecast of 2035. It was suggested that more attention be paid to environmental considerations and principles of protection in regional development programs.

For this purpose, using the Landsat satellite image classification in two fifteen-year periods between 1991, 2006, and 2021, the trend of land use change in the study area in five land use classes; Construction lands, cultivated lands, wetlands, vegetation cover, and bare lands were examined and to quantify the patterns of landscape appearance at the class level, MPS, CA, NP, PLAND, AWMSI, PD metrics and at the landscape level LPI, CONTAG and SHDI metrics were calculated. The CA-Markov chain model was used to prepare land use maps for 2035, and then the ecological security index was modeled for land use metrics in the study area. The results indicate a decrease in integration and an increase in the number of spots in the cultivated land class and the development and expansion of man-made lands in these lands. On the other hand, we have witnessed the phenomenon of integration in the barren lands of the region. Therefore, the ecological security of the region, during the period under review, affected by the above events, was assessed with more intensity during the years 1991 to 2006 and with a milder slope in the years 2006 to the forecast of 2035. Therefore, it seems necessary to pay more attention to environmental considerations and the principles of protection and protection in the development programs of the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Ecological security
  • Landscape ecology
  • Remote sensing
  • Landscape metrics

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