ارائه و ارزیابی مدل جدید مکانی‌ـ زمانی انتشار ریزگردها در مقیاس منطقه‌ای(DustEM)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد GIS دانشکدۀ نقشه‌برداری(ژئودزی و ژئوماتیک)، دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی

2 دانشیار گروه GIS دانشکدۀ نقشه‌‌برداری(ژئودزی و ژئوماتیک)، دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی

3 استادیار گروهGIS دانشکدۀ نقشه‌برداری(ژئودزی و ژئوماتیک)، دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی

4 استادیار گروه RS/GIS دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، پژوهشکدۀ ژئوانفورماتیک دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

طوفان‌های گردوغبار یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های اخیر در منطقۀ غرب آسیا محسوب می­شود. این پدیده به‌علت خشکسالی شدت بیشتری یافته و آثار منفی فراوانی در زندگی مردم منطقه گذاشته است. ازآنجاکه این منطقه در کمربند خشک و گردوغباری جهان قرار گرفته، ضروری است تا ابعاد گوناگون ریزگردها به‌خوبی واکاوی شود. پیش‌بینی و مدلسازی این پدیده می‌تواند از به خطر افتادن جان میلیون‌ها انسان جلوگیری کند. بنابراین، ارائۀ مدلی منطقه‌ای برای بررسی ابعاد گوناگون این پدیده ضروری است. المان‌های هواشناسی و اقلیمی مؤثر در پدیدۀ ریزگرد همواره درحال تغییرند بنابراین، باید از مدل‌های مکانی- زمانی برای مدلسازی و بصری‌سازی آن بهره برد. بدین منظور، در این مطالعه با استفاده از قابلیت‌های مدلسازی مکانی- زمانی سیستم اطلاعات مکانی (GIS) و داده‌های به‌دست‌آمده از سنجش از دور (RS) همچون سرعت باد، رطوبت خاک، بافت خاک و مدل ارتفاعی زمین مدلی برای برآورد میزان گردوغبار برخاسته از سطح زمین طراحی و توسعه داده شد. مدل طراحی‌شده که DustEM (Dust Emission Model) نامیده شده است، میزان انتشار جریان‌های افقی ریزگرد را محاسبه می‌کند. در این مطالعه مدلسازی برای بازۀ زمانی سال 2001 تا 2007 صورت گرفت و نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از آن با داده‌های AOD سنجندۀ MODIS ارزیابی شد. به‌منظور شناسایی مناطق با فعالیت ریزگرد بالا، خروجی مدل در سه طبقۀ مناطق با فعالیت کم، متوسط و زیاد با استفاده از حد آستانه‌های 3/0 و 6/0 برای شاخص AOD طبقه‌بندی شد و این مدل به‌صورت مکانی- زمانی مناطق بحرانی را شناسایی می­کند. میانگین شاخص صحت برای دورۀ مورد مطالعه % 6/73 به‌دست آمد که بیانگر دقت بالای مدل در شناسایی مناطق بحرانی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Presentation And Evaluation of A New Spatiotemporal Model For Dust Emission In Regional Scale(DustEM)

نویسندگان [English]

  • E Khodabandehloo 1
  • A Alimohamdadi 2
  • A Sadeghi-Niaraki 3
  • A Darvishi Boloorani 4
  • A.A Alesheikh 2
1 GIS student Department of GIS Engineering, Geomatics Engineering Faculty, K.N. Toosi University of Technology
2 Associate Prof., Department of GIS Engineering, Geomatics Engineering Faculty, K.N. Toosi University of Technology
3 Assistant Prof., Department of GIS Engineering, Geomatics Engineering Faculty, K.N. Toosi University of Technology
4 Assistant Prof.,University of Tehran Faculty of Geography, Dep. Of Remote Sensing & GIS, Geoinformatics Research Institute (UT-RGI) and University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Dust storm has been one of the most important challenges of western Asia. This phenomenon has been intensified due to the drought and has many negative effects on people's lives.  Since this region located in a dust belt in the world, it is necessary to explore different aspects of this phenomenon is well. Predictive and modeling of this phenomenon can be prevented of jeopardizing the lives of millions of people. So present a Regional Model to assess different aspects of this phenomenon is necessary.  Since climate and weather elements are constantly changing, the spatiotemporal model should be used for modeling and visualization. Hence, a model for estimating dust emission has been designed and developed and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial modeling capabilities and remote sensing (RS) data (wind speed, soil moisture, soil texture and digital elevation model) are used. The model which is called DustEM calculates horizontal dust emission. In this study, modeling is done for 2001 to 2007 and model’s output is evaluated by MODIS AOD and for dictating hot spot area output is clustered in 3 categories contain high, medium and low with threshold 0.3 and 0.6 for AOD. Accuracy index mean for the study period was 73.6% and show high precision of model in detecting hot spot area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Spatiotemporal Modeling
  • Dust Sources
  • GIS

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