مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی با استفاده از مدل ترکیبی CA-ANN در جنگل‌های مانگرو خمیر و قشم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه لرستان، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، خرم آباد، ایران

2 استاد گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، کرج، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: درحال‌حاضر یکی از مهم‌ترین مسائل محیط‌زیستی جهان تغییرات کاربری اراضی و افزایش ناپایداری در اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی و مناطق تحت حفاظت است. جنگل‌های مانگرو در مناطق ساحلی گرمسیری رشد می‌کنند و یکی از آسیب‌پذیرترین و درمعرض‌خطرترین اکوسیستم‌های جهان شمرده می‌شوند. تغییرات کاربری اراضی به‌طورکلی در یکپارچگی این اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی تأثیر می‌گذارد و همچنین به تغییرات زیستگاه منجر می‌شود و تهدیدی برای زندگی گیاهان و حیوانات به ‌شمار می‌رود. پیامدهای مستقیم این تغییرات و تأثیرات ناشی از آن شامل کاهش سلامت و مساحت جنگل‌های مانگرو، تشدید گرمایش جهانی و تغییرات اقلیمی، کاهش کیفیت آب ساحلی، کاهش تنوع زیستی، تکه‌تکه‌شدن زیستگاه‌های ساحلی و همچنین تخریب منابع زیستی خواهد بود. بنابراین پایش مکانی‌– زمانی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی ‏روند این تغییرات می‌تواند به مدیریت یکپارچه و برنامه‌ریزی صحیح درمورد جنگل‌های ‏مانگرو کمک کند. بر این ‌اساس، در مطالعۀ حاضر، تغییرات مکانی‌– زمانی کاربری‌های اراضی جنگل‌های مانگرو خمیر و قشم طی سال‌های 1989-2023 بررسی شد. علاوه‌براین به‌منظور مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی روند این تغییرات، مدل‌‌ ترکیبی CA-ANN براساس متغیرهای توصیفی ارتفاع، شیب، تراکم جمعیت، فاصله از ‏سکونتگاه‌ها مرکز شهر و جاده‌ها، برای سال 2060 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت.
مواد و روش‌ها: جنگل‌های مانگرو خمیر و قشم (منطقۀ حفاظت‌شدۀ حرا)، با مساحت ‏86,258 هکتار، در استان هرمزگان واقع شده است. در این مطالعه، تغییرات مکانی‌– زمانی کاربری‌های اراضی این منطقه، با استفاده از مجموعه تصاویر ماهواره‌ای لندست (1989-2023) در سامانۀ تحت وب گوگل ارث انجین (GEE) بررسی شد. علاوه‌براین، به‌منظور مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی این تغییرات، مدل‌‌ ترکیبی شبکۀ عصبی مصنوعی و اتومای سلولی (CA-ANN)، براساس متغیرهای توصیفی ارتفاع، شیب، تراکم جمعیت، فاصله از ‏سکونتگاه‌ها و مرکز شهر و جاده‌ها، بررسی شد و نقشۀ روند احتمالی تغییرات کاربری اراضی، برای سال 2060 نیز تهیه شد. در نهایت، با استفاده از مدل رگرسیونی حداقل مربعات معمولی (OLS)، میزان تأثیرگذاری این متغیرها در روند تغییرات کاربری‌های اراضی منطقه تحلیل شد.
نتایج و بحث: مطابق نتایج، جنگل‌های مانگرو خمیر و قشم در سال 2023، در مقایسه با سال 1989، روندی ‏کاهشی را نشان می‌دهند. ‏‏نتایج پیش‌بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی نیز نشان داد، در سال 2060، ‏پهنه‌های جزرومدی و ‏اراضی لخت افزایش و در مقابل، جنگل‌های مانگرو و پهنه‌های آبی کاهش خواهند یافت. همچنین بیشترین تغییرات به کاهش جنگل‌های مانگرو (در ‏مناطق شمالی و جنوب‌شرق منطقه) و افزایش سایر مناطق غیرطبیعی (پهنه‌های جزرومدی و اراضی لخت در محدودۀ ‏بندر خمیر، در شمال و شمال‌شرق منطقه و همچنین حاشیۀ روستاهای لافت تا گوران) بازمی‌گردد و با توجه به مقادیر احتمال انتقال، پوشش‌های جنگلی مانگرو مستعد تبدیل‌شدن به سایر مناطق غیرطبیعی‌ هستند‏. برمبنای نتایج تحلیل مدل رگرسیونی نیز، عمده‌ترین متغیرهای توصیفی تأثیرگذار در تغییرات کاربری اراضی شامل فاصله از سکونتگاه‌ها و جاده‌ها است، زیرا در این ‏رویشگاه‌های طبیعی، دسترسی و امکان توسعۀ فعالیت‌های انسانی بیشتر است. در این زمینه، تداوم افزایش تغییرات کاربری‌های اراضی، در جنگل‌های مانگرو خمیر و قشم، به نابودی و انقراض گسترۀ وسیعی از این ذخایر ارزشمند زیستی در جنوب کشور منجر می‌شود.
‏نتیجه‌گیری: با توجه به اینکه جنگل‌های مانگرو در خمیر و قشم جزء مناطق حفاظت‌شدۀ محیط‌زیست و مرزهای مدیریتی محسوب می‌شوند، اجرای پروژه‌های پیشنهادی و احداث هرگونه زیرساخت و توسعه در این منطقه باید با توجه به طرح‌های مدیریتی (زون‌بندی) و ارزیابی‌های زیست‌محیطی انجام شود. از سویی، تغییرات کاربری‌ها باید در خارج از مرز مدیریتی منطقه محدود شود تا کاهش یکپارچگی و ازهم‌گسیختگی زیستگاه، در این رویشگاه‌های طبیعی، به حداقل برسد. بر این ‌اساس، کاهش تأثیرات نامطلوب ناشی از تغییرات ‏کاربری اراضی، در این منطقه، نیازمند برنامه‌ریزی مناسب و مدیریتی یکپارچه در بهره‌وری صحیح از این منابع طبیعی است. یافته‌های این مطالعه می‌تواند به ذی‌نفعان نیز، در ایجاد فرصتی برای توسعۀ راهبردهای مناسب به‌منظور حفاظت از جنگل‌های مانگرو خمیر و قشم و احیای این رویشگاه‌ها، یاری رساند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Land Use Changes Modeling and Predictions Using CA-ANN Hybrid Model in Khamir and Qeshm Mangrove Forests

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parvaneh Sobhani 1
  • Afshin Danehkar 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Currently, one of the most important environmental issues in the world is land use change and increasing unsustainability in natural ecosystems and protected areas. Mangrove forests grow in tropical coastal areas and are one of the most vulnerable and endangered ecosystems in the world. Land use changes generally affect the integrity of these natural ecosystems and also lead to habitat conversion and pose a threat to plant and animal life. The direct consequences of these changes and their effects include a decrease in the health and area of ​​mangrove forests, intensification of global warming and climate change, a decrease in coastal water quality, a decrease in biodiversity, fragmentation of coastal habitats, and the destruction of biological resources. Therefore, spatio-temporal monitoring of land use changes and modeling and predicting the trend of these changes can contribute to integrated management and proper planning in mangrove forests. Accordingly, in the present study, the spatial-temporal changes in land use of Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests during the years 1989-2023 were investigated. In addition, to model and predict the trend of these changes, a combined CA-ANN model was investigated based on the descriptive variables of altitude, slope, population density, distance from settlements, distance from city center, and distance from roads for the year 2060.
Materials and Methods: Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests (Hara Protected Area) with an area of ​​86,258 ha located in Hormozgan province. In this study, the spatial-temporal changes in land use in this region were investigated using a set of Landsat satellite images (1989-2023) in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) web-based system. In addition, to model and predict these changes, a combined artificial neural network and cellular automata (CA-ANN) model was examined based on descriptive variables of altitude, slope, population density, distance from settlements, distance from city center, and distance from roads, and a map of the possible trend of land use changes for the year 2060 was also prepared. Finally, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model was used to analyze the impact of these variables on the trend of land use changes in the region.
Results and Discussion: According to the results, the mangrove forests of Khamir and Qeshm show a decreasing trend in 2023 compared to 1989. The results of the prediction of land use changes also showed that tidal zones and bare lands will increase in 2060, while mangrove forests and aquatic areas will decrease. Also, the most significant changes are related to the reduction of mangrove forests (in the northern and southeastern regions of the region) and the increase of other unnatural areas (tidal zones and bare lands in the area of ​​Bandar Khamir in the north and northeast of the region, as well as on the outskirts of the villages of Laft to Goran). Accordingly, considering the values ​​of the probability of transition, mangrove forest covers are susceptible to transformation into other unnatural areas. In addition, the results of the regression model analysis showed that the most important descriptive variables affecting land use changes include distance from settlements and roads due to greater accessibility and the possibility of high development of human activities in these natural habitats. In this regard, the continued increase in land use changes in the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests will lead to the destruction and extinction of a large area of ​​these valuable biological reserves in the south of the country.
Conclusion: Given that the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests are considered areas under environmental protection and management boundaries, the implementation of proposed projects and the construction of any infrastructure and development in this area must be carried out by management plans (zoning) and environmental assessments. On the other hand, land use changes outside the management boundaries of the area must be limited to minimize the reduction in the integrity and fragmentation of the habitat in these natural habitats. Accordingly, reducing the adverse effects of land use changes in this area requires appropriate planning and integrated management in the proper utilization of these natural resources. The findings of this study can also help stakeholders create an opportunity to develop appropriate strategies to protect the mangrove forests of Khamir and Qeshm and restore these habitats.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Land use
  • CA-ANN hybrid model
  • OLS regression model
  • Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests

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