مدل‌سازی تغییرات کاربری/ پوشش اراضی با تأکید بر رشد اراضی انسان‌ساخت به ‌کمک تلفیق ‌مدل CA-Markov و تحلیل‌های ‌تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره مبتنی بر GIS (مطالعة موردی: حوضة آبریز رودخانة ارس)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه جغرافیا دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، آزمایشگاه علم/ سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی و سنجش از دور، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشیارگروه جغرافیا دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، آزمایشگاه علم/ سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی و سنجش از دور، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: در سالیان اخیر افزایش جمعیت جهان و گسترش شهرنشینی، به ایجاد تغییرات گسترده‌ای در کاربری و پوشش اراضی منجر شده است. این فرایند پیامدهای زیان‌بار متعددی مانند افزایش دمای سطح زمین، جنگل‌زدایی و بیابان‌زایی، کاهش کیفیت خدمات اکوسیستم، کاهش تنوع زیستی و تهدید امنیت غذایی خواهد داشت. ازاین‌رو پایش و مدل‌سازی این تغییرات ضروری است و می‌توان با مدیریت بهینة اراضی گام مهمی در بهره‌وری صحیح از منابع طبیعی و توزیع امکانات برداشت. نظر به این مهم که حوضة آبریز رودخانة ارس در طول زمان دچار تحولات بسیاری به‌خصوص در اراضی انسان‌ساخت شده است، تمرکز پژوهش حاضر بر مدل‌سازی تغییرات کاربری/ پوشش اراضی در این حوزه است.
مواد و روش‌ها: در این راستا ابتدا نقشه‌های کاربری اراضی منطقه برای سال‌های 2000 و 2020 از پروژة Globeland30 مرکز ملی ژوماتیک چین استخراج شدند. در ادامه نیز با توجه به سناریوی رشد اراضی انسان‌ساخت و به ‌کمک روش‌های BWM و MEREC که از جمله روش‌های نوین تحلیل‌های تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره مبتنی بر GIS به‌شمار می‌روند، دو نقشه برای نمایش‌ پتانسیل رشد اراضی انسان‌ساخت منطقه تهیه شده است. در انتها این دو نقشه و نقشه‌های کاربری اراضی ورودی‌های مدل CA-Markov را تشکیل داده و فرایند مدل‌سازی یک‌بار با ترکیب BWM+ CA-Markov و بار دیگر با ترکیب CA-Markov MEREC+ برای سال 2040 انجام شده است.
نتایج و بحث: بررسی‌ نتایج نشان داد که در خروجی مدل ترکیبی BWM + CA-Markov وسعت اراضی انسان‌ساخت از 603 کیلومتر مربع در سال 2020 به بیش از 930 کیلومتر مربع در سال 2040 افزایش یافته است. درحالی‌که این رقم در خروجی مدل MEREC + CA-Markov حدود 829 کیلومتر مربع است. ازطرفی نتایج نهایی حاصل از اشتراک خروجی مدل‌های ترکیبی مذکور نیز نشان داد که وسعت این اراضی از 603 کیلومترمربع در سال 2020 به 930 کیلومترمربع در سال 2040 افزایش خواهد یافت.
نتیجه‌گیری: رشد فزایندة اراضی انسان‌ساخت در این حوضه می‌تواند به تخریب منابع زیست‌محیطی و تهدید اکوسیستم منجر شود. نتایج این پژوهش مدیران مربوطه را در راستای مدیریت بهینة شرایط پیش ‌رو و فراهم آوردن زیرساخت‌های مقتضی یاری می‌رساند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Land use/cover change modeling with emphasis on built-up land growth with the help of CA-Markov model integration and multi-criteria decision analysis based on GIS. (Case study: Aras River watershed)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sadegh Boulaghi 1
  • Hanieh Afsahi 1
  • Masoud Minaei 2
1 M.Sc. Student, Department of Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Geographic Information Science/System and Remote Sensing Laboratory (GISSRS: Lab), Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Associate Prof., Department of Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Geographic Information Science/System and Remote Sensing Laboratory (GISSRS: Lab), Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: In recent years, global population growth and urban expansion have led to significant land use and cover changes. These changes have numerous detrimental consequences, such as increasing surface temperatures, deforestation, desertification, degradation of ecosystem services, biodiversity loss, and threats to food security. Therefore, monitoring and modeling these changes are essential for optimal land management and sustainable utilization of natural resources. Given that the Aras River Basin has undergone significant transformations over time, particularly in built-up land developments, this research focuses on modeling land use/land cover changes in this area.
                  
Materials and Methods: Initially, land use maps for the region were extracted for the years 2000 and 2020 from the Globeland30 project of the China National Geomatics Center. Subsequently, two maps were prepared to illustrate the potential growth of built-up land based on a land development scenario. This was achieved using advanced decision-making analysis methods based on GIS, including BWM and MEREC. Finally, these two maps, along with the land use maps, were combined to form the input for the CA-Markov model. The modeling process was carried out twice: once using the BWM + CA-Markov combination, and again using the CA-Markov + MEREC combination for the year 2040.
 
Results and Discussion: The examination of the results demonstrated that in the output of the combined BWM + CA-Markov model, the extent of built-up land increased from 603 square kilometers in 2020 to over 930 square kilometers in 2040. Meanwhile, this figure was approximately 829 square kilometers in the output of the MEREC + CA-Markov model. Furthermore, the final results obtained from the intersection of these combined models also indicated an increase in the extent of this land from 603 square kilometers in 2020 to 930 square kilometers in 2040.
Conclusion: The continuous growth of built-up land in this basin can lead to the destruction of environmental resources and pose threats to ecosystems. The findings of this study provide relevant managers with valuable insights for optimal management of future conditions and the provision of necessary infrastructure.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Land Use/Cover
  • Built-Up Land
  • Markov Chain
  • Cellular Automata
  • Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDM)
  • Aras River watershed

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