پایش مکانی خشکسالی با استفاده از شاخص‌های سنجش از دوری (مطالعۀ موردی: استان سیستان و بلوچستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه جغرافیا، پردیس علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 استاد گروه جغرافیا، پردیس علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: پایش خشکسالی به‌دلیل تأثیرات گستردۀ آن در اقتصاد، محیط‌زیست و جامعه، مسئله‌ای حیاتی است. برای پایش دقیق خشکسالی، داده‌های جامع و یکپارچۀ هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی ضروری است؛ به‌ویژه در مناطقی مانند استان سیستان و بلوچستان که با خشکسالی شدید مواجه است. مطالعات اقلیمی نشان می‌دهد که استان سیستان و بلوچستان، به‌دلیل عوامل اقلیمی مانند بارندگی اندک، تبخیر بالا، بادهای شدید و پوشش گیاهی محدود، به منطقه‌ای خشک و بسیار مستعد خشکسالی‌های طولانی‌مدت تبدیل شده است.
مواد و روش‌ها: در این پژوهش، برای ارزیابی جامع خشکسالی در استان سیستان و بلوچستان، از داده‌های ماهواره‌ای مادیس و گریس بهره گرفته شد و شاخص پوشش گیاهی VHI برای پایش تغییرات پوشش گیاهی و شاخص TSDI برای تحلیل تغییرات منابع آب زیرزمینی به کار رفت. برای اعتبارسنجی نتایج، داده‌های رطوبت خاک GLDAS به‌منزلۀ دادۀ مرجع در نظر گرفته شد. با توجه به محدودیت‌های داده‌ای گریس، دورۀ مشترک شانزده‌ساله (2002-2017) برای تحلیل انتخاب شد. همچنین، برای بررسی روندهای بلندمدت خشکسالی، شاخص SPEI طی دورۀ سی‌ساله (1987-2018) محاسبه شد.
نتایج: از لحاظ جغرافیایی، نقشه‌های VHI نشان داد استان سیستان و بلوچستان، در تمامی سال‌ها، با خشکسالی متوسط و ملایم روبه‌رو بوده و در سال‌های منتهی به دورۀ مطالعاتی، بر شدت خشکسالی‌ها افزوده شده است. به‌منظور پایش خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی، از محصول ماهواره‌ای گریس استفاده شده است که تغییر در مقدار آب زمینی را اندازه‌گیری می‌کند. نتایج مطالعۀ شاخص TSDI مفهوم کمّی خشکسالی را پوشش می‌دهد. این شاخص، با هدف پایش خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی، در تمامی حوضه‌های آبریز درجۀ 3 (پنجاه حوضه) محاسبه شد. فرایند پایش خشکی، در گام نخست، با محاسبۀ کسری خشکسالی به‌منزلۀ ماه‌هایی با TWSA منفی به‌صورت چهار ماه متوالی تعریف شد. نتایج میزان افزایش کسری خشکسالی، از جنوب به شمال استان مورد مطالعه را به‌خوبی به نمایش گذاشته است. تمامی حوضه‌ها، تقریباً از 2011، با کسری‌های بزرگی مواجه بودند. این مطالعه، ازطریق برآورد کسری و کاهش ذخیرۀ کلی آب زمینی در ماه آوریل، نشان داد تمامی حوضه‌ها، در سال‌های منتهی به پایان دورۀ مطالعاتی، شاهد کمبود ذخیرۀ آب، آن هم در محدودۀ خطرناک و استثنایی بوده‌اند.
نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج حاصل از VHI نشان داد که استان مورد مطالعه، در سال‌های اخیر، دچار خشکسالی گسترده‌ای شده است. مناطق جنوبی و مرکزی استان با کلاس‌های شدیدتر خشکسالی مواجه بوده‌اند. تحلیل نمودارهای شاخص خشکسالی، در کلاس‌های متفاوت شدت خشکسالی، تأیید می‌کند که همۀ حوضه‌های آبریز با شرایط خشکسالی، به‌ویژه در سال‌های اخیر، روبه‌رو بوده‌اند. داده‌ها نشان می‌دهند که استان با بحران شدید آب مواجه است. اقدامات فوری و هماهنگ برای مقابله با این چالش ضروری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial Monitoring of Drought Using Remote Sensing Indices, Case Study: Sistan and Baluchestan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • massumeh nabavi zadeh 1
  • Kamal Omidvar 2
1 Ph.D. Students, Dep. of Geography, Campus of Humanities and Social Sciences, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
2 Prof. of Geography, Campus of Humanities and Social Sciences, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Drought monitoring is crucial due to its widespread impacts on the economy, environment, and society. To monitor droughts accurately, comprehensive and integrated meteorological and hydrological data are essential, particularly in areas such as Sistan and Baluchestan Province, which is facing a severe drought. Climatic studies indicate that Sistan and Baluchestan province has evolved into an arid region highly susceptible to prolonged droughts due to a combination of climatic factors such as low precipitation, high evaporation rates, strong winds, and limited vege-tation cover. Based on research conducted between 2000 and 2015, approximately 58% of the province's total area has been directly affected by drought. These findings align with previous studies, which have shown that dry years with below-average rainfall constitute more than 52% of the province's climatic record.
Materials and methods: In this study, MODIS and GRACE satellite data were utilized to comprehensively assess drought in Sistan and Baluchestan province. The Vegetation Health Index (VHI) was employed to monitor vegetation changes, while the Terrestrial Water Storage (TSDI) was used to analyze groundwater variations. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) soil moisture data served as a reference for result validation. Given the limitations of GRACE data, a 16-year common period (2002-2017) was selected for the analysis. Additionally, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated over a 30-year period (1987-2018) to examine long-term drought trends.
Results and discussion: Geographically, VHI drought maps revealed that Sistan and Baluchestan province has experienced moderate to severe drought throughout the study period, with increasing drought severity in the years leading up to the study. To monitor hydrological drought, GRACE satellite data was utilized to measure changes in terrestrial water storage. This is a significant step in comprehensively understanding hydrological drought in the study province. The TSDI index, a quantitative measure of drought, was calculated to monitor hydrological drought in all 50 third-level sub-basins. The drought monitoring process began by calculating the deficit, defining drought as four consecutive months with negative TWSA. Results clearly show an increasing drought deficit from south to north in the study province. Almost all basins experienced large deficits from 2011 onwards. By estimating the deficit and the overall decrease in groundwater storage in April, this study demonstrated that all basins were experiencing a water storage deficit in the critical and exceptional range in the years leading up to the end of the study period.
Conclusion: Results from the VHI revealed that the study province has experienced widespread drought in recent years. The southern and central regions of the province have faced more severe drought classes. Analysis of drought index graphs across different severity classes confirmed that all watersheds have experienced drought conditions, particularly in recent years. Data analysis indicates a severe water crisis in the province. Urgent and coordinated actions are required to address this challenge. Shifting to drought-resistant crops, improving irrigation efficiency, and securing water rights are essential steps towards a sustainable future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Vegetation Health Index (VHI)
  • Total Ground Water Storage Deficit (TWS)
  • Hydrological Drought
  • GLDAS data of moisture of soil
  • Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation and Transpiration Index (SPEI)
  • Sistan and Baluchestan provice

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