Simulating Population Dynamics for Modeling Residential Segregation via Agen-based Models & GIS

Document Type : علمی - پژوهشی

Abstract

In this research, a model for simulating of residential segregation pattern is presented via integration of GIS with agent-based models, and is implemented on real data of an area in north-west of Tehran. For this purpose, at first effective parameters regarding segregation in Tehran that is a mixture of social-economical factors and environment was determined and amount of their effects with AHP method was set. Considering the raster-based approach in modeling, maps related to these parameters was produced in ArcGIS medium. By programming in Netlogo software the mentioned model was developed .In this model, with a primary assumption, people of society were classified in 4 socio-economic groups with specific attributes and behaviors which by their own decisions- micro level actions- affect the segregation pattern- effects in macro level-. The pattern of urban segregation of area was simulated for a period of 20 years between 1986 and 2006. The model was calibrated by changing the important parameters of Schelling model, neighborhood radius and frequency of the same type neighborhoods, and some other parameters as size of pixels, price of parcels, rate of population increase etc. Validation of the proposed model has been done by counting the correct estimated pixels of total pixels. Respectively 62.5 % verifies the accuracy of the models. Keywords: GIS, Residential Segregation, Agent Based Model, Simulation.

References

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