Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Benni fish (Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi) Distribution under Different Climatic Scenarios

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 M.Sc. Student, Dep. of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran

2 Assistant Prof., Dep. of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran

Abstract

Since climate change is one of the most important and biggest threats to nature and biodiversity, it makes it difficult to manage and protect species. Predicting and determining its effects will considerably help to provide appropriate protection solutions as well as management plans. In the present study, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi species were forecasted by using the MaxEnt model in the R software environment. The environmental variables included slope, temperature annual range, flow accumulation, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and upstream drainage area. According to the results, the performance of the model in predicting the species was excellent (0.989) based on the AUC (Area Under the Curve) criterion. Moreover, the annual mean temperature and slope have been the most important environmental variables in determining the distribution of this species, respectively. In addition, the distribution range of this species will decrease in both the optimistic (RCP 2.6) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios of 2050 and 2080. In conclusion, in order to protect this species, it is necessary for decision-makers to identify and implement appropriate actions in order to adapt the effects of climate change and reduce the related threats.

Keywords

References

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