پیش‌بینی تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش ماهی بنی (Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi) در سناریوهای اقلیمی متفاوت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم‌ها، پژوهشکدة علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران

2 استادیار، گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم‌ها، پژوهشکدة علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران

چکیده

ازآن‌جاکه تغییر اقلیم یکی از مهم‌ترین و بزرگ‌ترین تهدیدها برای طبیعت و تنوع زیستی محسوب ‌می‌شود و مدیریت و حفاظت گونه‌ها را دشوار می‌سازد، پیش‌بینی و تعیین تأثیرات آن به بیان راهکارهای مناسب حفاظتی و اتخاذ تصمیمات مدیریتی کمک شایانی خواهد کرد. در مطالعة حاضر، تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش ماهی بنی (Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi) با استفاده از مدل مکسنت (MaxEnt) در محیط نرم‌افزار R پیش‌بینی شد. متغیرهای محیطی به‌کاررفته شامل شیب (Slope)، محدودة سالیانة دما (Temperature Annual Range)، جریان تجمعی (Annual Accumulation)، بارش سالانه (Annual ‎Precipitation)، دمای متوسط سالانه (Annual Mean Temperature) و مساحت حوضة بالادست (Upstream Drainage Area) است. با توجه به نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، عملکرد مدل در پیش‌بینی گونه براساس معیار AUC (Area Under the Curve) عالی (989/0) بود. همچنین دمای متوسط سالیانه و شیب، به‌ترتیب، مهم‌ترین متغیرهای محیطی مؤثر در تعیین پراکنش این گونه محسوب می‌شوند. به‌علاوه، دامنة پراکنش این گونه در هر دو سناریوی خوش‌بینانه (RCP 2.6) و بدبینانه (RCP 8.5)، طی 2050 و 2080 میلادی، با کاهش مواجه خواهد شد؛ در نتیجه، به‌منظور حفاظت از این گونه، لازم است مدیران اقدامات مناسب را در زمینة تعدیل تأثیرات تغییرات اقلیمی و کاهش تهدیدهای ناشی از این تأثیرات، شناسایی و عملی کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Benni fish (Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi) Distribution under Different Climatic Scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parinaz Ahmadi 1
  • Hossein Mostafavi 2
1 M.Sc. Student, Dep. of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran
2 Assistant Prof., Dep. of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran
چکیده [English]

Since climate change is one of the most important and biggest threats to nature and biodiversity, it makes it difficult to manage and protect species. Predicting and determining its effects will considerably help to provide appropriate protection solutions as well as management plans. In the present study, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi species were forecasted by using the MaxEnt model in the R software environment. The environmental variables included slope, temperature annual range, flow accumulation, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and upstream drainage area. According to the results, the performance of the model in predicting the species was excellent (0.989) based on the AUC (Area Under the Curve) criterion. Moreover, the annual mean temperature and slope have been the most important environmental variables in determining the distribution of this species, respectively. In addition, the distribution range of this species will decrease in both the optimistic (RCP 2.6) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios of 2050 and 2080. In conclusion, in order to protect this species, it is necessary for decision-makers to identify and implement appropriate actions in order to adapt the effects of climate change and reduce the related threats.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Biodiversity
  • Conservation
  • Climate change
  • Species distribution modeling
  • Iran

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