Gully erosion is one of the most severe types of water erosion that inclusive and global model to representits development under different environmental circumstances is difficult. Moreover, having knowledgeabout history behaviors of a gully and its advancement requires direct annual monitoring that is notpossible in Iran conditions because of cost and time. GIS and remote sensing with providing spatial data in a large scale have an important role in such evaluation. In this study aerial photos of two periods(1967-1995) were used to estimate the gully head advancement based on frames geometry (usingdispositive and camera calibration data of aerial photos) and rigorous procedure. Digital topographic layers (contour line, point elevation, rocks, and water body and stream line) of digital topographic maps were used to generate a digital model with high accuracy (7×7 m cell size) by PCI Geomatica 9.1 software. The results indicated that the mean of gully head advancement in 1967-2008 period was 1.3 my-. The results of this study showed that the gully head advancement can be obtained with acceptable accuracy using of aerial photo and GIS techniques. Further regression analysis showed that there was significant relationship between the gully contribution area, distance from ridge, height of gully headand SAR with gully head advancement. Keywords: Regression analysis, Gully erosion, Aerial photo, Rigorous procedure, Bushehr.
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