Comparative Study of Land Use Changes Using Markov Chain Model and Autonomous Cells (CA-Markov) in the Khiavchai Watershed of Meshginshahr, Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Dep of Watershed Management Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University,Sari, Iran

Abstract

Introduction: One of the most significant steps towards sustainable development is the protection of land integrity, as land use changes annually for various reasons, and excluding such lands from the production path results in irreparable damage. Since land use change in the Khiavchai watershed is a great importance due to the specific conditions of this area, examining spatial and temporal changes in land use provides good information to planners and managers for accurate forecasting. Because unplanned and unprincipled changes in land use are considered fundamental challenges for any country, which in turn have very destructive effects on natural resources. Therefore, the need to examine land use changes and predict related changes is a great importance.
Materials and Methods: The present study was conducted to detect and predict land use changes in the Khiavchai watershed, Meshginshahr. Accordingly, Landsat data were used to measure changes. By applying atmospheric corrections and using the supervised classification method, the maximum likelihood algorithm, the land uses in the region were classified into 6 classes. Using two maps from 1989 and 2007 as base and forward maps, a land use change prediction map was produced for the year 2023. The accuracy of the maps was evaluated based on the kappa coefficient, and the overall accuracy and correctness of the maps were evaluated based on the amount of agreement and disagreement parameters. Finally, the land use map for the next three decades (2033, 2043 and 2053) was predicted using the land use map from 1989 and 2023.
Results and Discussion: The results of the study of the trend of changes in land uses in the region indicate that the area of urban use and pasture use will face an increasing trend, and other uses will face a decreasing trend, compared to the land use map of 2023.
Conclusion: According to the results obtained, it can be acknowledged that the land uses of the region have been facing changes in area during the considered statistical period (1989 to 2023) and will have significant changes in the next three decades. Therefore, human intervention plays a major role in land use changes. These results can help planners in recognising the factors affecting land use changes and making correct management decisions at various management levels.

Keywords

References

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