Mahdis Yarmohamadi; Ali Asghar Alesheikh; Mohammad Sharif
Abstract
Dust storms are natural disasters that have severely affected human life and the environment. The majority of research in dust storm has been dedicated to the forecasting of storm-prone areas. However, developing models to predict the movement of these storms plays a significant role in the prevention ...
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Dust storms are natural disasters that have severely affected human life and the environment. The majority of research in dust storm has been dedicated to the forecasting of storm-prone areas. However, developing models to predict the movement of these storms plays a significant role in the prevention and management of dust storms, because they reveal the transport pathway and identify the next vulnerable areas against the storm. In this research, a hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) model has been developed to predict the path of dust storms based on airborne optical depth (AOD) data of MERRA-2 product for the next 12 hours. 40 storm events including 2489 storm hours in a dry region in Central and South Asia have been used for training the model. The results show that the proposed model provides an accurate prediction of the storm's path, so that for the time steps of 3, 6, 9, and 12 hours, the overall accuracy values are 0.9806, 0.9810, 0.9813, and 0.9790, respectively, the F1 score values are 0.8490, 0.8524, 0.8530, and 0.8384, respectively, and the Kappa coefficient values are 0.8387, 0.8424, 0.8431, and 0.8273, respectively.
Ali Asghar Alesheikh; Saeed mehri
Abstract
About 80% of world transportation happens at sea. Therefore the safety of vessels, in particularduring vessels’ movement, is crucially important. As different contextual parameters affect vessels’movement, selecting optimal contextual parameters is one of the main changes in vessels’ ...
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About 80% of world transportation happens at sea. Therefore the safety of vessels, in particularduring vessels’ movement, is crucially important. As different contextual parameters affect vessels’movement, selecting optimal contextual parameters is one of the main changes in vessels’ Context-Aware movement analysis. Toward this end, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is usedfor wrapper feature selection to identify optimal contextual parameters for vessels’ movementprediction. To do this, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) dataset from the eastern coast of theUnited States of America collected from December 2017 is used. All possible combinations of threecontextual parameters, including speed, course and vessels’ presence probability in different positionsat sea, were evaluated using the wrapper method in the LSTM network. In all evaluations, 70% ofdata was used for training and the remaining for cross-validation. The results selected speed andpresence probability as optimal contextual parameters for vessel movement prediction. The modeltrained with optimal contextual parameters is 26.98% more accurate than a model trained with allavailable contextual parameters and 16.14% better than a model without contextual parameters.Therefore, selecting optimal parameters from available contextual parameters can help improve theaccuracy of vessels’ predictions. Keywords: Context-Aware, Long Short-Term Memory, AutomaticIdentification System, wrapper, Movement prediction, Context.
