Introduction: Forest ecosystems, when properly managed, can provide functions such as the maintenance of ‎ecological processes, genetic diversity, and habitats for sensitive species, along with many other services. To ‎achieve sustainable development, examining the ecological conditions prevailing in these areas is essential. ‎Unfortunately, today, mangrove forests are facing numerous threats due to population growth and excessive ‎development of human activities under the influence of local economic pressures, biophysical drivers, and ‎socio-ecological systems, which have led to the vulnerability and destruction of these natural ecosystems. ‎Accordingly, examining the ecological footprint index in these natural habitats is considered one of the most ‎important tools available for assessing biological sustainability and providing effective management solutions ‎to reduce adverse impacts and achieve the goal of conserving mangrove forests.‎

Materials and Methods: In the present study, to investigate possible future changes and uncertainties, first, ‎land cover/use classes and their change trends were identified during the years 1989 to 2024. Also, the change ‎trend in 2050 was predicted and modeled using a Markov chain model and autonomous cells (CA-Marcove). ‎Next, the ecological footprint (EF), biocapacity (BC), ecological deficit (ED) were calculated and the level of ‎performance and ecological balance (EQF) in this region was examined. Finally, ecological pressure (EPI) and ‎ecological sustainability (ESI) were also examined.‎

Results and Discussion: According to the results, during the years 1989-2024, the largest downward trend is ‎related to rangelands with an area of 11,438.62 km2, while the largest upward change is allocated to man-‎made lands with an area of 135.54 km2. The results also indicate that man-made lands in 2050 have had the ‎largest upward trend, with an area of 11,415.26 km2 among the land classes. This trend indicates the speed of ‎development of human activities in these habitats and the conversion of land cover/use classes to man-made ‎lands. Equivalence factors are relatively constant, while performance factors fluctuate significantly. ‎Accordingly, among the existing uses, rangelands have the largest equivalence coefficient and show the largest ‎decrease in area during this period. Mangrove forests have the highest performance coefficient among land ‎uses due to their size. Overall, the ecological footprint in Iran's mangrove forests (during 1989-2024) has an ‎increasing trend, and the biological capacity and ecological surplus have a decreasing trend. As the results ‎showed, the foot depth index also has an increasing trend, which indicates an increase in the intensity of natural ‎capital consumption and a decrease in capital accumulation during the years under study. Furthermore, during ‎these years, rangelands have accounted for the largest share of natural capital, which could be due to the large ‎size of this land use in the region. On the other hand, over time, the natural capital flows of mangrove forests ‎show a decreasing trend due to the development of human activities and the transformation of land cover/use ‎classes, while man-made lands have an increasing trend. In addition, the results obtained indicate an increase in ‎ecological pressure and a decrease in sustainability in the region. Among land uses, mangrove forests are the ‎most stable, while pastures show an unstable state over time and also have a decreasing trend.‎

Conclusions: According to the results, increasing demand and man-made lands have led to significant changes ‎in the development and transformation of land cover/use classes in Iran's mangrove forests. Likewise, the ‎continuation of these changes until 2050 will lead to an increase in the ecological footprint and a decrease in ‎natural capital in this area. Therefore, achieving sustainable development and protecting natural resources, as ‎well as establishing a balance between human resource consumption and the absorption of waste produced by ‎nature, requires the performance of planners and officials in preserving and supporting these natural habitats, in ‎a way that they strive to preserve their valuable biological resources and improve the conservation status of ‎these forests.‎