آینده‎پژوهی زیست‎پذیری بافت فرسوده در بحران‎های شهری (نمونۀ ‎موردی: محلۀ امام‎زاده یحیی، تهران)

Introduction: With the growth of urban populations, attention to urban safety and security has become one of the primary priorities for city managers and urban planners. Urban crises, especially in historical and deteriorated fabrics, can pose serious threats to the safety and livability of neighborhoods and lead to widespread destruction. Due to their specific characteristics—such as physical deterioration, high population density, lack of adequate infrastructure, and weak urban services—deteriorated urban fabrics are among the most vulnerable areas when facing urban crises like earthquakes, floods, and other natural or social disasters. In recent years, various studies and programs have been conducted to rehabilitate and renovate these areas and improve the quality of life for their residents. However, the focus on the livability of these fabrics in the face of urban crises and the use of futures studies for crisis prediction and management have received less attention. On the other hand, defining multipurpose spaces and their balanced distribution within neighborhoods, particularly in deteriorated fabrics with historical value, can contribute to improving the quality of life before a crisis and enhancing crisis management afterward.
Materials and Methods: The lack of integration of future research with planning and crisis management is one of the gaps that this research examines how to improve crisis management conditions in the future by using future research techniques and spatial models, and fills this gap with innovation based on predictive analysis and possible scenarios. This research focuses on preserving the livability of deteriorated urban fabrics during urban crises using futures studies, specifically concentrating on the Imamzadeh Yahya neighborhood. It employs scenario writing to explore possible options for the future livability of this neighborhood. By analyzing livability criteria during crises using ArcGIS software and multi-criteria decision-making techniques, and leveraging CommunityVIZ Scenario360 software, the study examines the impact of variables across three different scenarios. Ultimately, the optimal scenario for creating multipurpose spaces is proposed.
Results and Discussion: The findings reveal that selecting the optimal scenario and analyzing various layers emphasize the importance of open spaces, connectivity arteries, and vacant areas in the deteriorated urban fabric of the Imamzadeh Yahya neighborhood for urban crisis management. Furthermore, the research using CommunityVIZ Scenario 360 demonstrated that the northern and northwestern areas of the neighborhood are identified as suitable locations for defining multipurpose spaces, which can be effective in spatial enhancement and maintaining livability after a crisis. Additionally, the results indicate that low-cost and minimal projects, such as the use of multipurpose spaces and the consolidation of small-scale functions, can assist in restoring and improving the livability of historical and deteriorated neighborhoods even in crisis conditions. The findings suggest that multipurpose spaces, by offering diverse services and enhancing resilience, can lead to improved quality of life and increased satisfaction among residents.
Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that the inequitable distribution of services and facilities can challenge urban crisis management and significantly diminish both city resilience and quality of urban life. Each neighborhood, in accordance with its population size, requires access to essential functions such as commercial, educational, green spaces, recreational, and healthcare facilities to address residents' basic needs at least in the initial hours of a crisis. Transitioning from traditional planning methods to modern approaches, including the use of advanced models and software, alongside urban futures studies, can lead to significant improvements in post-crisis conditions.