نشریه سنجش از دور و GIS ایران

نشریه سنجش از دور و GIS ایران

Ecological Footprint and Biosustainability Assessment in Natural Mangrove Habitats of Iran

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
Parvaneh Sobhani
Afshin Danehkar
Dep of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran‎
10.48308/gisj.2026.242171.1310
چکیده
Unfortunately, today, mangrove forests are facing many threats due to population growth and excessive development of human activities under the influence of local economic pressures, biophysical drivers, and socio-ecological systems, which have led to the vulnerability and destruction of these natural ecosystems. In the present study, to investigate possible future changes and uncertainties, land use/land cover (LULC) classes and their change trends were identified during the years 1989 to 2024. In addition, the change trend in 2050 was predicted and modeled using a Markov chain model and autonomous cells (CA-Markov). Next, the ecological footprint (EF), biocapacity (BC), and ecological deficit (ED) were calculated, and the level of function and equivalence factors (EQF) in this region was examined. Finally, the ecological pressure index (EPI) and ecological sustainability index (ESI) were also examined. According to the results, the area of Iran's mangrove forests in 2024 ( 131.25 km2 and 0.43%) decreased compared to 1989 ( 135.54 km2 and 0.44%). Among the existing LULC classes, built-up areas (with an area of 14032.32 km2 and 46.40%) have the highest increasing trend, while pastures (with an area of 11438.62 km2 and 37.82%) have the highest decreasing trend from 1989 to 2024. The results also indicate that built-up areas in 2050 have the largest increasing trend with an area of 11415.26 km2 among land classes. Overall, the EF in Iranian mangrove forests (during the years 1989–2024) has an increasing trend, and the BC and EP have also a decreasing trend. According to the results, the EDI also has an increasing trend, which indicates an increase in the intensity of natural resource consumption and a decrease in capital accumulation during the years under study. The results indicate an increase in EP and a decrease in sustainability in the area. Therefore, achieving sustainable development and protecting natural resources, as well as establishing a balance between human resource consumption and the absorption of waste produced by nature, requires the performance of planners and officials in preserving and supporting these natural habitats, in a way that they strive to preserve the resources with their biological value and improve the conservation status of these forests.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تغییرات زمانی-مکانی
مدل &‌‌‌‌rlm
CA-&‌‌‌‌lrm
Marcove
ردپای اکولوژیک
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پایداری زیستی
جنگل‌های مانگرو ایران&‌‌‌‌rlm
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