نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، علوم و مهندسی محیط زیست، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران

2 استادیار گروه برنامه‌ریزی و طراحی محیط، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

10.52547/gisj.2022.226615.1087

چکیده

توسعه با مفهوم عام آن، پیشرفت صنعتی، تکونولوژیکی و فضایی، به ویژه در کشورهای در حال توسعه، تاثیرات نامطلوب بر محیط‌زیست را نه تنها در مقیاس ناحیه‌ای سیمای سرزمین که در سطوح مختلف منطقه‌ای، ملی و بعضا جهانی منجر شده است. تا به امروز بیشتر تحقیقات در مورد امنیت اکولوژیکی براساس مدل فشار- وضعیت - پاسخ انجام شده است و کمتر مطالعاتی براساس رویکرد مدل اکولوژی سیمای سرزمین به این مقوله پرداخته است. همچنین تحقیقات اندکی با تمرکز بر تغییرات پویای امنیت اکولوژیکی، به ویژه شبیه‌سازی و پیش‌بینی روند توسعه آینده امنیت محیط‌زیست وجود دارد. هدف از این تحقیق پایش و پیش‌بینی وضعیت امنیت محیط‌زیست در دوره زمانی سال‌های 1991 تا 2035 با تلفیق الگوریتم ماشین بردار پشتیبانی ، مدل اکولوژی سیمای سرزمین، مدل ترکیبی زنجیره مارکوف و سلول‌های خودکار برای حوزه شهرستان نظرآباد در استان البرز است.

برای این منظور با استفاده از طبقه‌بندی تصاویر ماهواره ای لندست در دو بازه زمانی پانزده ساله بین سال‌های 1991 و 2006 و 2021، روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی منطقه مورد مطالعه در پنج کلاس کاربری؛ اراضی ساخته شده ، اراضی کشت شده ، زمین های مرطوب ، پوشش گیاهی و اراضی بایر مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و جهت کمی کردن الگوهای سیمای سرزمین در سطح کلاس متریک‌های MPS،CA،NP،PLAND،AWMSIT،PD و در سطح سیمای سرزمین متریک‌های LPI،CONTAG و SHDI محاسبه شدند. برای تهیه نقشه‌های کاربری سال 2035 از مدل CA-Markov استفاده گردید و سپس شاخص امنیت اکولوژیک برای متریک‌های سیمای سرزمین منطقه مورد مطالعه مدل سازی شد. نتایج حاکی از کاهش یکپارچگی و افزایش تعداد لکه ها در کلاس اراضی کشت شده و توسعه و گسترش اراضی انسان ساخت در این اراضی بوده و از طرف دیگر شاهد بروز پدیده یکپارچگی در اراضی بایر منطقه بوده ایم. از این رو امنیت اکولوژیکی منطقه، طی دوره مورد بررسی، متاثر از وقایع فوق، طی سال های 1991 تا 2006 با شدت بیشتر و در سال های 2006 تا پیش‎بینی 2035 با شیب ملایم تری رو به کاهش ارزیابی شد. از این رو رعایت بیش از پیش ملاحظات محیط زیستی و اصول حفاظت و حمایت در برنامه‎های توسعه ای منطقه، ضروری به نظر می‌رسد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of ecological security of Nazarabad county based on the study of land-use change detection, using landscape ecology metrics

نویسندگان [English]

  • Monireh Amini 1
  • Romina Sayahnia 2

1 PhD Student of Environmental Science and Engineering, Environmental Science Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University

2 Assistant Professor of Department of Environmental Planning and Design , Environmental Science Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University

چکیده [English]

Development in its general sense, industrial, technological and spatial progress, especially in developing countries, has led to adverse effects on the environment on a regional scale and at different regional, national, and sometimes global levels. Up to this date, most research on ecological security has been done based on the pressure-status-response model, and few studies have been done based on the approach of the Landscape Ecology model. Not much paper has been yet focused on dynamic changes in ecological security, in particular simulating and predicting the future development of environmental security. The purpose of this study is to monitor and predict the state of environmental safety in the period from 1991 to 2035 by combining support vector machine algorithm, landscape ecology model, Markov chain combination model, and automated cells for Nazarabad county in Alborz province.

For this purpose, using the Landsat satellite image classification in two fifteen-year periods between 1991, 2006, and 2021, the trend of land use change in the study area in five land use classes; Construction lands, cultivated lands, wetlands, vegetation cover, and bare lands were examined and to quantify the patterns of landscape appearance at the class level, MPS, CA, NP, PLAND, AWMSI, PD metrics and at the landscape level LPI, CONTAG and SHDI metrics were calculated. The CA-Markov chain model was used to prepare land use maps for 2035, and then the ecological security index was modeled for land use metrics in the study area. The results indicate a decrease in integration and an increase in the number of spots in the cultivated land class and the development and expansion of man-made lands in these lands. On the other hand, we have witnessed the phenomenon of integration in the barren lands of the region. Therefore, the ecological security of the region, during the period under review, affected by the above events, was assessed with more intensity during the years 1991 to 2006 and with a milder slope in the years 2006 to the forecast of 2035. Therefore, it seems necessary to pay more attention to environmental considerations and the principles of protection and protection in the development programs of the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Ecological Security
  • Landscape ecology
  • remote sensing
  • Landscape metrics
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